Tesla Has the Most Projected Lifetime Recalls, Mercedes and Toyota the Least

Summary

• Tesla is the most-recalled brand, with the Y, 3, X, and S occupying 4 of the top 5 slots
• Mercedes-Benz leads the least-recalled list, followed closely by Toyota and Lexus
• 33 Models are projected to experience 1 or fewer recalls over their lifespan
• 25 Models are projected to experience at least 10 recalls over their lifespan
• The Tesla Model Y is projected to have 62 recalls over its lifespan

Nobody wants to receive a recall notice, but in 2022 there were over 400 automotive recalls issued, impacting more than 25 million vehicles. The 2021 numbers were even higher: over 1,000 recalls involving over 35 million vehicles. Cars, like any mass-produced item, are subject to variables related to component and build quality, meaning every vehicle has a chance of being recalled for a safety issue at some point.

But, as iSeeCars’ latest study reveals, the potential for a recall varies – quite dramatically – between models. iSeeCars analyzed vehicle recall campaign data provided by the National Highway Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) for models from the last 10 model years to calculate the number of projected recalls over an expected 30-year lifespan. 

The overall average for lifetime projected recalls across all makes and models is 4.0. The least-recalled cars average one projected recall or less; conversely, the most recalled car, Tesla’s Model Y, is projected to have more than 62 recalls. As a brand, Mercedes-Benz has nine models making the list of least recalled cars, while Porsche and Tesla each have four of the most recalled models. But note that Tesla’s entire model line occupies four of the top five most recalled vehicles.

“Recall rates can vary between makes and models,” said iSeeCars’ Executive Analyst Karl Brauer, “but the extreme variation in the number of recalls a car is projected to receive over its lifetime is something we didn’t expect. For consumers who don’t want to deal with a recall, the top models offer a substantially lower risk than even average models, such as the Chevrolet Equinox or Honda Ridgeline, with four predicted lifetime recalls. Avoiding a recall by owning  a highly rated model, like the Hyundai Elantra GT or Mercedes CLA, means less time spent scheduling a dealer visit, taking the vehicle in, and waiting for repairs to be made.”

The 33 Least Recalled Cars

The 25 Most Recalled Cars

What About Over-the-Air Updates and Safety Recalls?

Even though safety recalls that have OTA fixes are more convenient to repair, it should be noted that all safety recalls are issued for the same reason: The NHTSA’s analysis of the vehicle issue identified a safety-related defect that violates its vehicle safety standards and needs to be addressed.

The following data shows the top 25 rankings for projected lifetime safety recalls, excluding recalls repaired with OTA updates, to give owners and shoppers a sense of which models require the most dealership visits to address recalls:

Tracking Recalls Over Time

In the graph above three curves are plotted for three representative vehicles: the Nissan 370Z, representing low recall rate vehicles; the Toyota Camry, representing average recall rate vehicles; and the Tesla Model S, representing high recall rate vehicles. Each curve shows the average number of recall campaigns per year over the first 10 years of these three vehicles’ lifespans.

“There are two critical components to think about when analyzing recalls,” said Brauer. “Obviously the number of recall campaigns is the first factor, but the timing of the campaigns is also important. Most vehicles behave like the Toyota Camry–most of their recalls are issued when they are first introduced, with a rapid decline after 1-3 years. But some cars, like the Tesla Model S, see a pattern of ongoing recalls, or even an increasing number of recalls, as time passes. Owners of vehicles with that pattern will continue to face recall hassles for years after they acquire their car.”

For more information on NHTSA recalls, and to check any open recalls on a specific model, visit their website. Recall repairs are free for car owners (other than the time they take to resolve), and should be addressed to ensure a vehicle is operating safely. Sadly, only about a quarter of vehicles involved in a recall are ever repaired due to low consumer action on this issue.

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Latest Industry Recall Statistics

Methodology

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